Yes, this is the reason for increased spread of Coronavirus cases in Minnesota. People are simply moving around more in public spaces, regardless of stay at home orders.
20200510/https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/10/coronavirus-death-toll-model-247242
Unfortunately, aggressive testing and contract tracing does not look to be a viable exit path for Coronavirus.
20200510/https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/929917?scr=soc_ig_200506_mscpedt_news_mdspc_test&faf=1
It will take a long time for herd immunity to be established with Coronavirus, unfortunately.
20200510/https://hub.jhu.edu/2020/04/30/herd-immunity-covid-19-coronavirus/
Wow, there was a Disneyworld measles outbreak just in 2019 last year? Yes, 2019.
20200510/https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2019/08/24/tourist-infected-with-measles-visited-disneyland-other-southern-california-hotspots-mid-august/
Oh, another good point raised by the articles. Take a good look at the official numbers for your region. They can be off from the actual population incidence of Coronavirus by a factor of 20.
In my region of Minnesota as of today, there are 11,271 total confirmed cases, and the total state population is about 5.5 million. That makes for a 1/500 incidence rate of the disease. That is, the total number of people who have been infected at one point in the past. Over the past several weeks, the number of people who have officially had Coronavirus and officially recovered from it has been consistently about 50% of the total current number of cases. Also, the number of cases has been roughly doubling every 7 days.
So, let’s take our calculations further. With a factor of under-reporting of 20, we have a 1/25 incidence rate. End of this week, it will be a 1/12 incidence rate. And in that target incidence rate, in a group of 25, one person would have recovered from a previous infection of Coronavirus and the other person would have an active infection, possibly even asymptomatic but still contagious.
Now, let’s delve deeper. Are these Minnesota-wide statistics consistent for Hennepin County? Hennepin County has a total population of about 1,250,000 and a confirmed number of cases of 3,558. That’s about 1/350, a bit higher than the 1/500 state-wide number. So, all else equal, yes, indeed these calculations and projections are also consistent in Hennepin County, and besides, it is one of the most densely populated counties in Minnesota, comprising about 1/5th of Minnesota’s total population.
And, another thing, previously I’ve been looking at the trajectory and anticipating an end of spread in August, and the finale of recovery in the end of September. But, being off by a factor of 20 accelerates that time scale, by how much? That would be 4.3 doubling periods reduced, or 30 days reduced. In other words, the time scale is decreased by a full month. The likely end of new spreading is in July, and the recovery finale is end of August, just in time for the new school year.
Yeah, actually… thinking about all this together, the probability of YOU catching Coronavirus next weekend but being asymptomatic for the next two weeks is quite high. I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s what happened in my home.
20200510/https://www.health.state.mn.us/diseases/coronavirus/situation.html
20200510/https://worldpopulationreview.com/us-counties/mn/hennepin-county-population/
Also, good news, I should reiterate, Coronavirus does not live very long on the surface of dry cardboard, as we have been told from articles of UPS and FedEx delivery drivers being pressured to continue to work even when they had symptoms of Coronavirus.